EARLY WARNING INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC CRISES: EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

This paper examines whether macroeconomic and financial indicators can provide timely warnings of economic vulnerability, with a particular focus on Uzbekistan. The study combines a structured review of established early-warning research with descriptive analysis of publicly reported indicators. Historical annual data for Uzbekistan in 2015-2023 are drawn from World Bank country indicators, while more recent estimates are discussed separately using IMF reporting. Real GDP growth, consumer-price inflation and private-sector credit relative to GDP are presented graphically. The analysis finds rapid financial deepening, persistent price pressures and a sharp pandemic-era slowdown followed by recovery. It proposes a monitoring dashboard combining credit conditions, inflation, external debt, foreign exchange reserves, external balances and banking soundness. These indicators can identify vulnerabilities, but none should be interpreted as a definitive forecast of crisis. The study offers policy-relevant monitoring priorities while acknowledging limitations of annual data and the absence of a validated Uzbekistan-specific prediction model.