CLIMATE-RELATED RISKS AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

Climate change affects macroeconomic stability through agricultural output, food prices, productivity, infrastructure damage, public finances and financial-sector balance sheets. This article assesses these transmission channels with a focus on Uzbekistan, drawing on international research, official macroeconomic reports and climate-development scenario analysis. The method is a structured literature synthesis and descriptive comparison of published statistics and projections rather than a causal econometric model. The World Bank estimates that without adaptation Uzbekistan’s economy could be 10% smaller by 2050 relative to a counterfactual without climate impacts. Irrigation accounts for substantial water and electricity demand, while exposure to water scarcity and extreme heat creates risks to food production and real incomes. The study separates historical macroeconomic observations from conditional long-run climate scenarios and identifies potential fiscal, inflationary and banking-sector spillovers. The results support integrated climate-macroeconomic monitoring, water-efficient infrastructure, renewable energy, targeted social protection and climate stress testing. The article concludes that adaptation and orderly transition policies can strengthen economic security, but estimates should not be mistaken for realized losses or precise crisis forecasts.