DETERMINANTS OF IT SERVICES EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES: PANEL EVIDENCE AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

The global IT services market has grown at roughly twice the pace of merchandise trade over the past two decades, yet the structural drivers of export competitiveness remain incompletely understood for transition economies. This study estimates the key determinants of IT services exports using a balanced panel of 54 countries over 2005–2022, applying fixed-effects (FE) and system-GMM (SYS-GMM) estimators to address endogeneity and country heterogeneity. Four robust determinants emerge: human capital quality, institutional strength, broadband infrastructure penetration, and cost competitiveness. Applying the coefficients to Uzbekistan's policy trajectory, the study projects IT services exports of USD 2.8–6.3 billion by 2030, against a government target of USD 5 billion. The results offer an empirical foundation for the Digital Uzbekistan 2030 strategy.