MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND FORECASTING OF POPULATION AND LABOR RESOURCES IN THE REGION (CASE STUDY OF CHUST DISTRICT)

Abstract

This article examines the demographic growth and industrial development of Chust district in Namangan region using mathematical modeling and forecasting methods. Statistical data on permanent population and industrial production for 2015–2025 were analyzed using exponential regression models and the least squares method. The study evaluates the dynamics of population growth and industrial production and determines their growth coefficients. Based on the constructed mathematical models, forecasts for the period 2026–2031 were developed. The results indicate a steady increase in both population size and industrial production volume in the district over the forecast period. The research highlights the importance of mathematical and statistical methods in analyzing socio-economic processes and forecasting regional development indicators. The obtained results may be useful for regional economic planning, labor resource management, and socio-economic policy development.