EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS AND PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF FREE ECONOMIC ZONES IN THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive empirical analysis and macroeconomic performance evaluation of the Free Economic Zones (FEZs) in the Republic of Uzbekistan during the period of intensive industrial modernization from 2022 to 2025. Leveraging dynamic macro-statistical datasets provided by the Agency of Statistics under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan and medium-term forecasts from the Ministry of Investment, Industry, and Trade, we track the evolution of economic indicators across twenty-five operational zones. The evaluation demonstrates robust quantitative growth, with total attracted investments projected to reach USD 2.3 billion and export values scaling to USD 1.95 billion by the end of 2025. Crucially, the internal structural localization rate crossed the critical threshold of 45%, proving a fundamental shift from primitive low-tier assembly lines to complex domestic supply chains. However, using a method of regional economic grouping and return on investment (ROI) matrix calculations, this paper reveals a severe spatial economic polarization. Operational ROI ranges from an optimized 22.0% in advanced industrial-logistical hubs (Navoi, Bukhara) to a sub-optimal 12.1% in peripheral southern agricultural enclaves (Surkhandarya, Kashkadarya). The study identifies three foundational structural barriers that generate this asymmetry: a persistent infrastructure gap ("the last-mile problem"), institutional rigidity caused by the state-managed Unitary Enterprise organizational form of zone directorates, and the isolation of foreign-capital operations from local small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). To circumvent these anomalies, the author synthesizes a series of macro-structural policy interventions, including the migration to an AI-driven, blockchain-integrated "Smart SEZ" digital dashboard, the institutional deployment of Public-Private Partnerships via the "Private Developer" concessionary framework, and the regulatory implementation of "Eco-discounts" to insulate exporters from emerging transborder carbon adjustment mechanisms (CBAM).